Bank of Mongolia Expects Stable Tugrik Exchange Rate in 2026
Since the beginning of 2025, the tugrik has weakened against the US dollar by approximately 3.8 percent.
The Bank of Mongolia stated that positive expectations are likely to dominate the domestic foreign exchange market in 2026, supporting a stable exchange rate outlook for the national currency.
According to the central bank, coal export revenues are expected to remain stable, while prices for copper and gold are projected to continue rising. In addition, no major external debt or bond repayments are scheduled for 2026. As a result, the current account deficit is forecast to shrink by around 40 percent compared to 2025.
The Bank of Mongolia estimates that in 2026 the average copper price will reach about 10,000 US dollars per ton, while gold is expected to average 3,700 US dollars per ounce. At the same time, coal export revenues fell by 45 percent in the first half of 2025, putting significant pressure on the national currency
While the tugrik weakened by about 4.3 percent against the US dollar in the first half of the year, the situation improved in the second half. Foreign currency inflows increased and the balance of payments recorded a surplus, allowing the exchange rate to strengthen and shift toward a more stable trend.
As of December 26, the tugrik has weakened by roughly 3.8 percent since the start of the year. The official exchange rate currently stands at 3,555 tugrik per US dollar.
